Entry 2148, on 2021-08-24 at 12:07:08 (Rating 3, News)
In times of crisis, what is the best approach? Is it better to decide on a path, and then fully commit to that, to the extent of suppressing discussion of alternatives; or is it better to be ready to change course if there is good reason to question the current path when it is shown to be problematic?
This question can be applied to many situations in government, management, and everyday life, but it is particularly relevant now that we really do have a major crisis because of the COVID pandemic.
There are several approaches to managing COVID, and New Zealand has chosen an elimination strategy. I think everyone would be really happy if elimination was practical, or even possible, but is it? Clearly it can be done short term in some countries. New Zealand achieved it for about a year, but now the virus is back in a worse form, and again we are trying to eliminate it.
It worked well in Australia for a while too, but now New South Wales at least has basically admitted defeat and is planning on living with the disease in the community, and so have many other counties, including Britain.
In fact, assuming a country wants to be part of the global community and isn't prepared to just cut itself off from the world for the indefinite future, it is inevitable that we will all have to live with it.
That's not to say that attempts at elimination which give time to prepare for living with the virus in the community aren't worthwhile, but it does mean that it is just a short term strategy and the major effort should be around vaccination, exploring better ways to treat those affected, and implementing safer and more efficient testing and quarantine systems.
So far our government (in New Zealand) has been pretty good with the elimination, but not so great with anything else. During this second major national lockdown there are already signs, after less than a week, that people aren't prepared to be quite so cooperative as they were last time. This might be easily dismissed as people suffering from "lockdown fatigue" or "rejecting the facts" or "being self-centered" but it might equally be because they think the current approach isn't the best.
I'm not necessarily saying that lockdowns and attempted elimination, at least in the short term, isn't a worthwhile aim, just that it is ultimately futile and we should be looking ahead more than we are.
Australia was doing as well as New Zealand until recently, but now they are as badly off as the rest of the world. It is only through good luck that the same hasn't happened here so far, but it is only a matter of time before it does. Maybe the current lockdown will be ineffective against the Delta variant, but even if we succeed this time, what about the next?
We were told in the past that lockdowns were a temporary measure which would be used until we had everyone vaccinated. Now we are told than full vaccination (which won't happen anyway) will not be a complete solution, and that "other measures"will still be necessary. So, beyond a very short-term, simplistic strategy, there doesn't appear to be much really effective long-term thinking going on.
But that's not the only problem. There are credible people who disagree with the approach we have taken, but we don't see their opinions being taken into consideration, or even given much exposure by the media, beyond ridicule. It might very well be that they're wrong, and that our current approach is the best, but I would still like to hear what they have to say.
Our prime minister, in her typical inane style, has called us a team of 5 million, but this is clearly nonsense. I for one, am not a member of that team, and I know many other people who also reject the PM's rhetoric. There are plenty of sheeple in this country, but there are plenty of independent thinkers as well. Sure, many of them are conspiracy theorists, and many simply reject the facts, but there are plenty of others who have genuine questions about our current strategy.
Many people cite Sweden as an example of where a less dictatorial approach was taken, and half of those use it to show how that approach has been a disaster, while the other half see it as a success. When I look at the stats I can see that they could be used to make both cases. I chose some other countries in Europe with similar populations and found Sweden has done better than most, but compare it with its neighbours and it doesn't look so good.
So which is it? Well, that is open to debate, but at the very least we should be prepared to say that their strategy is worth considering. And the "initial lockdowns followed by freedom" strategy of Britain is also worth looking at. Of course, their vaccination strategy is well ahead of ours (in fact almost everyone's is well ahead of ours) so they do have an advantage there. The question is when "freedom day" should be announced. Where is the right balance between control and freedom?
Those with more conspirational tendencies might say that it suits the government to have this level of control, and to have the regular chance for the prime minister to appear on camera with her vacuous announcements. Some might even suggest the appearance of COVID again is welcomed by this government for that reason. Others might go even further and say they accidentally allowed the virus back in through incompetent management of quarantine. Finally, the greatest conspiracy-mongers might even suggest that the quarantine exemption for the Australian rugby team was designed to deliberately allow the virus back in.
I don't accept those conspiracies, and I think it's simple political expediency. They didn't want COVID to reappear, but maybe subconsciously they are glad it did.
So, in summary, if I reject the current system, what do I think could be better? Well, first, I don't necessarily reject the system, I just would like to look at options more seriously. But if I was going to suggest some simple improvements they would go along the lines of making the rules less severe, more consistent, and planning better for the long term.
So let smaller businesses open, with appropriate safeguards, like having one customer at a time in smaller shops. Let people go to the beach, as long as they take reasonable precautions, like keeping distant from others. And above all, let's take alternative approaches more seriously. We are not a team of 5 million, and I hope we never will be.
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