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Runaway Dinosaur Cards

Entry 365, on 2006-07-18 at 15:35:03 (Rating 3, Comments)

I'm sorry to harp on about the inevitable demise of civilisation as we know it, but the more I read the book "A Short History of Progress" by Ronald Wright, the more I recognise that we are making the same mistakes now as previous civilisations did before they collapsed.

Joseph Tainter recognises three causes of collapse: the runaway train, the dinosaur, and the house of cards. The "runaway train" refers to a process which feeds on itself until it is out of control. A positive feedback loop is created, and the destructive characteristics quickly escalate. The "dinosaur" refers to the leadership's inability or refusal to take appropriate action because it conflicts with established procedures and they can't adapt to change. The "house of cards" refers to systems which are supported by weak elements and where a single failure can cause the whole system to collapse.

Its not hard to see these three phenomena at work today. The runaway train might be our modern oil-based economy which is causing damage to the planet through climate change. If George Bush's administration isn't an example of the dinosaur, I don't know what is. Bush is just part of the bigger phenomenon of the conservative right in the US. Finally the house of cards could easily apply to modern economics. It wouldn't take much for one element to destroy the whole delicate balance.

In the past, civilisations such as Easter Island, Sumeria, Central America, and Rome have fallen because of a combination of these factors. We may not be in immediate danger from these just yet, but we are heading in the wrong direction.

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