Entry 2435, on 2026-03-28 at 10:28:23 (Rating 3, News)
Well, the conflict in Iran is maybe the biggest global news story at the moment (sorry about that, Palestine, Ukraine, and global warming) so I guess I should present some opinions on it. Needless to say, these opinions will contain plenty of nuance, because that's what I try to do. Anyway, let's get started...
The war started at the end of February, so it has been going for a month now. Is it too early to know if it is a good or bad idea, a success or a failure, a moral necessity or an abomination? It's a bit of all of those, and when the US gets involved with wars it is always terminating them and what comes next which is the problem, so it is too early to judge, but Im going to judge anyway!
The Iranian regime was recognised by almost everyone as a bad one. When a government kills tens of thousands of its own people for demonstrating against it, you know something is wrong.
When a country is not trusted even by its neighbours (and yes, I do recognise the difference in the Persian origin of Iran versus the Arab roots of other Middle Eastern states, and the difference in Shia versus Sunni Islam) that is not a good sign.
When a country is known to be supporting and funding terrorist groups whose intent is the eradication of its ideological enemies (especially Israel) then you can see why we might be right to feel a bit nervous about it.
And when a state is governed according to a religion which some people refer to as a death cult, and that country is desperately trying to create a nuclear weapon, well yes, we have a problem.
There were signs that the Iranian people might have been ready to rise up against the government, so you can understand why the US and Israel might want to use their military option to help that process along. It hasn't worked out that way, but the idea was arguably good, and there might still be some possibility of success.
So looking at these factors you might conclude the war was justified, but for balance, let's list some counter-arguments...
First, there are many bad governments around the world and many would ask why it is up to the US (and to some extent, Israel) to judge which are sufficiently bad that the use of force against them is justified. There is also the unfortunate fact that when the US does try to "fix" these issues it often turns into a complete debacle. Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan were not conspicuous successes, were they?
So we have to ask if there any moral basis by which this can be justified, and practically speaking, will there be a positive outcome, or "will the cure worse than the disease"?
Second, if we are going to criticise the theocratic elements of its culture, should we not also condemn the religious rhetoric from the US and especially Israel? I have often said that I think Islam is a far worse religion than Christianity or Judaism, but I also say "those who believe absurdities will commit atrocities" and that applies to both sides to some extent.
Third, it wasn't so long ago that the US attack on Iran's nuclear enrichment facility was claimed to be a great success, so you might wonder why it is now necessary to start a genuine war against them for the same reason. Sure, I agree that some ability was maintained and they are not going to stop their nuclear program voluntarily, but maybe just additional strikes agains those facilities might have been more justifiable.
Finally, did the US and Israel understand the global repercussions of this war? The world is now suffering from fuel shortages and the associated increase in prices, which is turning a lot of opinion against the war. Did they not realise the tactical use of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran was likely, because they do not seem to have planned ahead to prevent it.
Some people are engaging in more extreme rhetoric and claiming they can see World War III or a nuclear Armageddon being the eventual result of this action, but I don't think anyone with much credibility would believe that. On the other hand, by stopping a genocidal theocracy getting nuclear weapons and very likely using them, maybe those things can be prevented.
If you think the price of fuel is bad now, imagine what it would belike during a nuclear exchange in the Middle East! Maybe now is the right time to attempt a meaningful regime change and prevent a truly catastrophic conflict in the future. I'm not totally sure that is a reasonable idea myself, but it is an idea with some merit.
Maybe we just need to let this proceed and see where it finishes. And if that is not acceptable to people (especially the anti-Trump mob) because of the civilian and military losses, maybe they would prefer to go back to where the Iranian government was killing its own people instead? It's important not to look at just what is happening now, but at what would be happening, both now and in the future, if this action had not been taken.
So those are my thoughts for now. As things progress maybe I will change my mind, but the only way to truly judge this will be how the US exit strategy unfolds and what the new Iranian government looks like. We can only hope that this will be the exception where things turn out for the better!
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